Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Breaking - New SurveyUSA Poll Shows Cropp Gaining

Before the Cropp supporters get too excited, the new SurveyUSA poll, conducted for WUSA, still shows Fenty leading by 10%. This lead, however, is half of what it was in the last SurveyUSA poll conducted two weeks ago.

According to WUSA:

In the Democratic Primary for Mayor of Washington, DC today, Adrian Fenty leads Linda Cropp 45% to 35%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WUSA-TV Washington, DC.Compared to an identical SurveyUSA WUSA-TV poll 2 weeks ago, Fenty has lost 3 points and Cropp has gained 8 points.

According to the SurveyUSA poll, Cropp's gains have been among self-identified moderates and conservatives (who the heck are the three folks self id-ing as 'conservatives' in the DC Democratic party???).

More from WUSA:

Cropp's gains have come from conservatives and moderates. Among conservatives, she had trailed by 33, now leads by 9. Among moderates, she had trailed by 13, now leads by 5. Liberals continue to support Fenty: he leads this group by 23 points, compared with 25 points 2 weeks ago. None of the other five candidates gets more than 9% of the votes. With two weeks until the Primary Election, only 4% of likely voters are undecided.

So the question is - are the Cropp negative campaign ads working or was the earlier SurveyUSA poll an outlier? This poll is certainly more in line with other polls showing Fenty with a roughly 10 point lead.

Marie Johns runs a distant third with 9%. Interestingly enough, taking a look a the crosstabs shows that Johns is actually running impressively strong among white DC residents - polling 19%, just 7 points behind Linda Cropp with this same group. Johns, however, is getting crushed among black DC voters, polling just 5%.

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